EU Economies

EU Economies

Twenty years after the start of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the European economy is facing many challenges of different natures. The incomplete architecture of the EMU is at the root of many pressing issues on the political agenda. These include economic policy coordination among members states, tensions arising from the common European budgetary framework and the sometimes problematic relationship between the ECB’s monetary policy and national fiscal policies. See 'Institutions and Politics'

Interacting with these institutional issues is our analysis of the European business cycle. This is affected by both ‘domestic’ and global drivers. ‘Domestic’ factors include policies such as labour and product market reforms, as we have recently seen in France. Another domestic factor is the weak European investment cycle which contributes to the current account surplus of the euro area. Fiscal policy initiatives, and their implications for debt sustainability and government bond yield spreads, are closely monitored as well. More global factors on our watch list include the impact of Emerging Market turbulence and of the ongoing trend of deglobalisation and trade conflicts. See 'Business Cycle'

The high sensitivity of the European economies to global trends explains our special attention for Europe’s international trade relations. Therefore, topics such as the EU’s trade agreements with e.g. Canada and Japan, as well as the pros and cons of a possible (TTIP-like) agreement with the US, are discussed on this theme page. Because of the far-reaching potential consequences of Brexit on the European economy, this topic merits a separate theme in our analysis. See 'International Trade'

Some of the topics mentioned are well specified and/or of a rather technical nature. Other subjects are more conceptual and raise fundamental questions about the future of the European economy. In this theme section, we aim to investigate and shed further light on each of these topics, to underpin our overall view on the European economy.

Institutions and Politics

Italian government plays with fire

Italian government plays with fire

Euroscepticism will not bring the EU down

EO20190513 Euroscepticisme zal EU niet klein krijgen

Eviva España... but growth champion not immune to Italian scenario

Eviva España... maar groeitopper niet immuun voor Italiaans scenario

Franco-German axis without policy coordination is clutching at straws

Zonder beleidscoördinatie blijft Frans-Duitse as een strohalm

Business Cycle

Consumers sweat out sultry summer, but what about turbulent autumn?

EO20190703 Consument zweet zwoele zomer uit, maar wat met woelige herfst

The seductive utopia of Modern Monetary Theory

EO20190621 MMT

Asymmetric shocks would trigger a triple dip crisis in Europe

EO20190613 Asymmetrische schokken kunnen driedubbele dip in Europa veroorzaken

The ECB’s interest rate policy is counterproductive for growth

EO20190508 ECB interest rate policy counterproductive

International Trade

It’s the car sector that’s to blame for the sputtering German growth engine, not the trade war

EO20181126 Niet handelsoorlog, maar autosector is verantwoordelijk voor sputterende Duitse groeimotor

New TTIP: Worthy alternative to a trade war

Nieuw TTIP: waardig alternatief voor een handelsoorlog

Trade agreement with the EU is essential for the UK

Handelsakkoord met EU is essentieel voor het VK

EU-Japan trade agreement: covenant of losers sets a bad example

EU-Japan handelsakkoord: verbond van verliezers geeft slechte voorbeeld
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