World

World

Economic update - June 2020

Economic Perspectives June 2020

Economic forecasts

  Real GDP growth (period average, in %) Inflation (period average, in %)
        2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Euro area Euro area 1.2 -9.6 6.2 1.3 0.4 1.5
  Germany 0.5 -7.1 5.8 1.4 0.7 2.0
  France 1.2 -10.3 6.5 1.3 0.4 1.5
  Italy 0.1 -11.7 6.1 0.6 -0.1 0.5
  Spain 2.0 -12.8 7.7 0.8 0.3 1.6
  Netherlands 1.7 -7.5 5.1 2.7 0.7 2.0
  Belgium 1.4 -9.5 5.7 1.2 0.2 1.8
  Ireland 5.5 -5.0 4.0 0.9 -1.0 2.0
  Slovakia 2.4 -10.0 7.0 2.8 1.2 1.0
Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic 2.5 -10.0 6.0 2.6 2.5 1.2
  Hungary 4.9 -6.2 5.0 3.4 3.0 3.4
  Bulgaria 3.4 -8.0 5.0 2.4 -0.5 2.5
  Poland 4.2 -5.0 6.2 2.1 2.7 2.9
  Romania 4.1 -7.0 6.0 3.9 2.7 3.3
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 1.4 -9.0 6.0 1.8 -0.5 2.5
  Sweden 1.2 -5.8 4.1 1.8 0.3 1.3
  Norway 1.2 -6.2 5.0 2.2 1.0 2.2
  Switzerland 0.9 -6.0 4.7 0.4 -0.5 0.5
Emerging markets China 6.1 1.0 8.8 2.9 2.6 2.1
  India* 4.7 -1.4 8.0 4.8 3.2 3.8
  South Africa 0.2 -8.3 3.8 4.1 3.0 4.2
  Russia 1.3 -5.5 2.9 4.2 3.1 3.5
  Turkey 0.9 -6.5 4.7 13.9 10.5 10.0
  Brazil 1.1 -8.4 5.0 3.7 2.3 3.4
Other advanced economies United States 2.3 -6.5 4.4 1.8 0.5 1.9
  Japan  0.7 -5.2 3.0 0.5 -0.5 0.0
  Australia 1.8 -5.0 4.5 1.6 0.5 1.5
  New Zealand 2.2 -6.0 5.5 1.6 0.4 1.6
  Canada 1.7 -6.6 5.1 1.9 0.7 1.7
* fiscal year from April-March         18/06/2020
Policy rates (end of period, in %)
    18/6/2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
  Euro area (depo rate) -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
  Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.70 0.50 0.50
  Bulgaria - - - - -
  Poland 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
  Romania 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
  Sweden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
  Norway 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
  Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
Emerging markets China 2.95 2.85 2.75 2.65 2.65
  India 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75
  South Africa 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
  Russia 5.50 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00
  Turkey 8.25 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.50
  Brazil 2.25 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00
Other advanced economies United States (upper limit) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
  Japan  -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
  Australia 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
  New Zealand 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
  Canada 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
    18/6/2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
Euro area Germany -0.45 -0.40 -0.40 -0.30 -0.30
  France -0.08 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.20
  Italy 1.35 2.00 1.85 1.60 1.60
  Spain 0.51 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.55
  Netherlands -0.26 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.15
  Belgium -0.08 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.25
  Ireland -0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
  Slovakia 0.05 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.35
Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic 0.93 0.95 0.90 0.90 0.98
  Hungary 2.39 2.20 2.10 2.00 2.00
  Bulgaria 1.00 1.10 0.95 0.70 0.65
  Poland 1.43 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80
  Romania 4.05 4.06 4.08 4.10 5.10
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.22 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.40
  Sweden 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.15
  Norway 0.66 0.60 0.60 0.70 0.70
  Switzerland -0.43 -0.40 -0.40 -0.30 -0.30
Emerging markets China 2.90 2.80 2.75 2.65 2.60
  India 5.82 6.10 6.10 6.00 5.90
  South Africa 9.36 9.20 9.20 9.10 9.00
  Russia 5.58 5.60 5.40 5.30 5.30
  Turkey 11.75 11.70 11.50 11.50 11.00
  Brazil 6.66 6.90 6.80 6.80 6.60
Other advanced economies United States 0.70 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.80
  Japan  0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
  Australia 0.87 0.95 1.05 1.05 1.05
  New Zealand 0.89 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00
  Canada 0.53 0.55 0.65 0.65 0.65
Exchange rates (end of period)
    18/6/2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
USD per EUR 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.14
CZK per EUR 26.67 26.50 26.20 26.20 26.20
HUF per EUR 345.83 345.00 343.00 345.00 345.00
PLN per EUR 4.46 4.50 4.47 4.42 4.32
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.85
GBP per EUR 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.91 0.90
SEK per EUR 10.56 10.45 10.45 10.40 10.40
NOK per EUR 10.72 10.85 10.80 10.60 10.40
CHF per EUR 1.07 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.08
BRL per USD 5.36 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
INR per USD 76.31 75.50 75.00 75.00 74.00
ZAR per USD 17.38 17.50 17.00 17.00 17.00
RUB per USD 69.70 70.00 69.00 68.00 68.00
TRY per USD 6.86 6.90 7.10 7.20 7.30
RMB per USD 7.09 7.05 7.05 7.00 7.00
JPY per USD 106.75 106.00 106.00 106.00 106.00
USD per AUD 0.69 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.70
USD per NZD 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67
CAD per USD 1.36 1.37 1.36 1.34 1.32

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe

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